Hello folks,

Here's the week ahead forecast video;

http://www.gavsweathervids.com/forecasts.html

Here's the written version

http://www.gavsweathervids.com/written.html

Stormy, then dry and very warm then... Cold? 

Have got the CFS Six Month Look-Ahead coming up @ GWV later. Tomorrow it's the seventh Winter 17/18 update + The October 2017 EC seasonal model interpretation for Winter 17/18! 

Thanks as always for your support and to Brian and the mods for making it happen! 

EDIT: Here's the Seventh Winter 2017/18 Update: http://www.gavsweathervids.com/winter2017-18-forecast-uk.php

EDIT 2: Here's our "interpretation" of this months EC seasonal model update for Winter 2017/18:

http://www.gavsweathervids.com/ecmwf-seasonal-model-forecast-interpretation.php

 

 

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Cheers as always, Mr GP.

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Thank you Gavin . Return to frosts will be nice in TWO weeks time. Can get the telescope out again...  

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Thanks for a wonderful forecast. However, I will point out that your forecast for that showery rain further to the west to close in over eastern Scotland later on this afternoon is already being proved to be incorrect in this part of the world where I live here in Edinburgh. If you were to now look at a much more updated version of the latest rain radar map, you will see that some of that rain has gone to the north of here with another area of rain much further to the south (it looks from that as well, as though the actual centre of Storm Brian has gone further to the south than what was forecast, instead of passing right over the top of this area). This means that whilst that showery rain might have closed in in other parts of eastern Scotland, that is certainly not happening here and the latest rain radar maps show no signs of that happening here, either.

In fact, it has actually ended up being a really nice and sunny afternoon here which is only further confirming what I have said in other threads (namely today's Current Conditions and October Precipitation Watch threads) within this forum, that Storm Brian has ended up being a complete non-event in this part of the world having delivered just a measly 1 mm of rain at Edinburgh Gogarbank (all of which fell during the night, last night) and virtually nothing in the way of wind.

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Cheers Gavin.

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However, I will point out that your forecast for that showery rain further to the west to close in over eastern Scotland later on this afternoon is already being proved to be incorrect in this part of the world where I live here in Edinburgh. If you were to now look at a much more updated version of the latest rain radar map, you will see that some of that rain has gone to the north of here with another area of rain much further to the south (it looks from that as well, as though the actual centre of Storm Brian has gone further to the south than what was forecast, instead of passing right over the top of this area). This means that whilst that showery rain might have closed in in other parts of eastern Scotland, that is certainly not happening here and the latest rain radar maps show no signs of that happening here, either.

In fact, it has actually ended up being a really nice and sunny afternoon here which is only further confirming what I have said in other threads (namely today's Current Conditions and October Precipitation Watch threads) within this forum, that Storm Brian has ended up being a complete non-event in this part of the world having delivered just a measly 1 mm of rain at Edinburgh Gogarbank (all of which fell during the night, last night) and virtually nothing in the way of wind.

 

But except that you enjoyed the forecast? 

Thanks everyone for the kind comments, haha! 

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Hi all,

Here's the Seventh Winter 2017/18 Update

http://www.gavsweathervids.com/

Looks at SST's, ENSO, Siberian snow cover, solar activity and this week we've also got lots of wet September analogues..

Will place this video on the Winter updates page with a written summary for anybody that can't watch the video this evening.

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Here's today's second update; GWV presents our October 2017 "interpretation" of the EC seasonal model for winter 2017/18

http://www.gavsweathervids.com/ecmwf-seasonal-model-forecast-interpretation.php

 

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Have added the seventh Winter 2017/18 update to the Winter updates page + A written summary if you can't watch the vid

http://www.gavsweathervids.com/winter2017-18-forecast-uk.php

Annnnnnndddddd.... We're done! 

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Hi Gav

I will watch it shortly - as it's over 45 mins I'll watch it during my dinner -I like your long updates i remember last year they were around 33 mins ! Just shows how much there is to discuss. I saw your video update on the BCC and I would be keen to know why the BCC has gone for a drier than average winter yet the CFSV2 has gone for a wetter than average winter!?

Another thing. - DO you think the CFSV2 temp anomaly forecast over cook the temperatures? Ifg I rightly remember last year they went for well above normal throughout the whole of Europe during the winter months of December , Jan and Feb when most of December and into January until the end of January had most of central and south eastern EUROPE in the freezer with records amount of snow and cold - I had a friend in Vlore Albania and there was snow lasting over a week there in January 2017 this year even Italy saw snow, Cyprus as well as Greece and so on.

My point is that the CFS V2 never forecast or predicted below or well below average temperatures yet it was the coldest for many years. What's your thoughts on this years CFS V2 temperature forecast anomaly? Having seen your video a day ago , do you think the temperatures have been over cooked ? I mean seriously? the whole of Europe above average for 3 months? That's bizarre.

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V. interesting regarding the analysis of wet Septembers leading to a colder winter - or at least the right set up but a 'near miss'.

if there's any truth in the idea that a wet September enhances berry growth- you could be onto something here!

 

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Thanks Gav; a succinct synopsis, as always. Stunning photo BTW, with those beech trees on fire.

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